Someone from the SEC is going to get squeezed out of the College Football Playoff.
Probably. Maybe? While getting three teams into the 12-team field seems guaranteed and landing four looks pretty likely, there will be a fifth team from this power conference with a playoff case left outside the postseason picture.
Mathematically, there’s a plausible scenario where these five SEC front-runners post double-digit wins during the regular season:
Georgia goes 12-1, losing once in the regular season but winning the conference championship;
Texas goes 11-2, with the second loss coming to Georgia in early December in Atlanta;
Alabama finishes 10-2 with both defeats coming in two of four games – against Georgia and Missouri at home and Tennessee and LSU on the road;
And both Tennessee and Mississippi go 10-2, which might be underselling the potential of these two contenders.
If you accept that the top four from the SEC make the playoff, whether that fifth team grabs an at-large bid depends on how the selection committee views the second-place finishers from the Big 12 and ACC. Would the committee be willing to overlook a team that reached its conference title game in favor of one that finished fifth in its league?
For now, USA TODAY Sports’ updated playoff bracketology goes with four from the SEC, leaving the Rebels as the first team outside the field.
College Football Playoff field bracket projection
The biggest shift from last week’s bracket involves a shakeup atop the Big 12.
Kansas State was No. 4 a week ago but has been replaced by Utah. The Wildcats suffered an epic meltdown late Saturday night at Brigham Young, eventually losing 38-9, while the Utes held off Oklahoma State with quarterback Cam Rising again sidelined due to injury.
That road loss drops Kansas State out of the field entirely. Stepping in as the league’s second team is Iowa State, now up to No. 19 in the US LBM Coaches Poll after wins against North Dakota, Iowa and Arkansas State.
The Cyclones’ chances come down to three key games: Central Florida at home on Oct. 19, Utah on the road on Nov. 23 and the Wildcats back in Ames on Nov. 30 to end the regular season. Taking two of three would give ISU the tiebreakers to reach the conference championship game, but only if it avoids the sort of unexpected pitfall that took down Kansas State this past weekend.
First four teams out
Mississippi
Leaving off the Rebels seems ridiculous given how well they’ve played through three games, though against a weak caliber of competition: Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. The big issue is a schedule that might not do Ole Miss any favors. While Lane Kiffin’s bunch can book a playoff spot by beating Georgia at home on Nov. 9, games against LSU and Oklahoma are suddenly less imposing given how both teams have scuffled out of the gate. Those are currently the only ranked teams on the Rebels’ schedule.
Missouri
The selection committee might ignore the fact that Missouri needed double overtime to beat Vanderbilt. But the Tigers face only one of the current top five in the SEC – Alabama on Nov. 26 – and will need to put up style points to overcome this weaker strength of schedule. The home struggles last week against the Commodores and the previous Saturday against Boston College don’t bode well as they prepare to hit the road for the first time against Texas A&M on Oct. 5.
Michigan
Michigan rescales the Big Ten ladder after beating Southern California for now. There are still plenty of concerns, though, none bigger than the lack of any sort of production at quarterback and a resulting lack of offensive balance. Alex Orji threw for just 32 yards in his first start. Tougher defenses in road environments are forthcoming, and it’s hard to see the Wolverines flourishing with drastic improvement.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame played well defensively in a 28-3 win against Miami (Ohio). But the Fighting Irish are hurt by Northern Illinois’ overtime loss to Buffalo. A win this week against Louisville is mandatory. They also need Texas A&M to be one of the top-tier teams in the SEC to validate that road win and have Southern California do the same in the Big Ten with a trip to face the Trojans looming in their final game.
Four teams to watch
Brigham Young
The Cougars have a nice non-conference win against SMU to go with Saturday’s eye-opening result against Kansas State. Improvement on both lines has BYU in the playoff mix. They just need to avoid getting too high before the toughest part of its schedule comes in the second half of the season.
Illinois
Trending in the right direction after last Friday’s win at Nebraska, Illinois goes to Penn State this Saturday in another key Big Ten road game. A defeat of the Nittany Lions would be huge, giving the Illini two huge road victories and some margin for error with games against Michigan and Oregon in October.
Boise State
Memphis losing at Navy has opened up the Group of Five race. James Madison gets the nod this week after dropping 70 points on North Carolina, but the Broncos could take over as the team to beat with a win this weekend against Washington State. Their three-point loss at Oregon in Week 2 could be one of the better results for Group of Five teams when all is said and done.
Washington State
And speaking of the Cougars: After last week’s thrilling win against San Jose State, Washington State is the only team in the Bowl Subdivision with three victories against opponents currently with a winning record – two of those victories are against Power Four opponents. The Cougars are doing what they have to do to overcome the lack of true conference affiliation. The downside is they are fighting with other at-large teams to make the field.
