James Franklin’s brand is quite established at this point in his career, and part of that brand is Penn State turtling up vs. Ohio State.
Big 12 becomes more in danger of qualifying only one team for CFP bracket.
Oregon, Ohio State battle for frontrunner status while Georgia wobbles.
Never change, James Franklin.
He won’t.
Penn State’s coach lost for the 10th time in 11 tries against Ohio State on Saturday courtesy of another Franklin offense that turtled up in the pressure moments. As Franklin exited the field in Happy Valley after a 20-13 loss, he got into a brief verbal spat with a heckling fan.
All in all, very on brand.
Speaking of on brand, Florida blew another winnable game, and the Big 12 somersaulted through another turbulent Saturday in which no team seems safe.
Here’s what lingers on my mind after Week 10, as we prepare for the first College Football Playoff rankings:
Has James Franklin hit his ceiling at Penn State?
Sure seems like it.
Franklin’s Nittany Lions were left with another shoulda, woulda, coulda loss to Ohio State after twice failing to score on possessions that penetrated the 5-yard line.
Could Penn State beat the Buckeyes in a rematch? It’s possible, but unlikely. If you can’t get it done in front of a home crowd of 110,030, you probably just can’t get it done. That’s a familiar refrain for Franklin, who’s pitiful in big games.
Penn State probably will qualify for the CFP for the first time in the Franklin era, but that’s not a sign of program growth. It’s a sign of playoff expansion.
Penn State padlocked its wagon to Franklin. His buyout tops $56 million.
“All on me,” Franklin said, while accepting responsibility for the loss.
If that quote sounds familiar, it’s because Franklin offered the same line multiple times over the years after losses to the Buckeyes.
Franklin hired a new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, before the season in hopes of sprucing up the offense to penetrate the Buckeyes. The result: Penn State didn’t muster a single offensive touchdown.
With No. 1 Oregon humming, Penn State seems resigned to a fate of being no better than the third-best team in the Big Ten in any given year.
Being the B1G’s bronze medalist would be enough to make the expanded playoff in most years, but Franklin shows no significant progress toward a national championship in his 11th season.
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Can the Big 12 qualify multiple teams for CFP bracket?
That quest got a lot harder.
The Big 12’s chance to qualify two playoff teams absorbed some punishing body blows when Iowa State and Kansas State suffered losses Saturday to unranked opponents.
Two-loss Kansas State now would need to win the Big 12 to qualify for the playoff. That’s probably also true of one-loss Iowa State, which suffers from one of the weakest strength of schedule ratings among contending teams.
Brigham Young enjoys Big 12 front-runner status. The Cougars play no ranked opponents between now and the conference championship game. If they lost in the Big 12 title game, that might unlock a second bid for the conference. BYU’s win at SMU and against Kansas State could be enough of a résumé ace to push the Cougars into the playoff as a 12-1 conference runner-up.
But, if BYU wins the conference, the Big 12 would be in danger of qualifying just one team, unless top contenders in the Big Ten and SEC endure upset losses.
Oregon or Ohio State as national championship front-runner?
Poll voters and oddsmakers might disagree on this subject.
Oregon ran away with the No. 1 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll after handling Michigan without issue, while No. 2 Georgia bumbled and stumbled its way to a sloppy victory against Florida.
It’s puzzling that poll voters ranked Georgia, and not No. 3 Ohio State, at No. 2 considering the Buckeyes just beat Penn State, and their only loss remains a one-point defeat at Oregon.
Oddsmakers see it differently. The Buckeyes are the odds-on favorite to win the national championship, edging Georgia, Oregon and Texas for that betting favorite status.
Nobody is outperforming the Ducks. They logged three consecutive blowout wins since beating Ohio State, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel established his Heisman Trophy candidacy.
Oregon’s defense found its stride, too.
Either Oregon or Ohio State has more than enough talent to win the national championship. I’d give Oregon a slight edge, because of its superior quarterback play.
Might the Big Ten have a third national championship contender? Indiana has run roughshod through its schedule.
Who’s the CFP contender being overlooked?
No. 12 Mississippi.
The Rebels fell out of focus after suffering their second loss, to LSU, on Oct. 12, but they just delivered one of their best performances of the season in a rout of Arkansas.
Their season comes down to a Saturday home game against Georgia, which suddenly looks vulnerable again. If the Rebels upset the Bulldogs, they should shift to the qualifying side of the playoff bubble. If they lose, they’re out.
Lane Kiffin assembled the best defense he’s had in Oxford, and that gives Ole Miss a chance against a Georgia team that piles up turnovers. If injured Georgia running back Trevor Etienne can’t play, an Ole Miss upset becomes more plausible.
Ole Miss’ final two games are against Florida and Mississippi State, so if it topples Georgia, it’s in good shape for a 10-2 finish, and then the committee must give it serious consideration for an at-large bid.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
