This year’s journey to reaching the College Football Playoff will have many ups and downs. Given the expanded postseason field, there are going to be several opportunities for teams to win their way into — or potentially fall out of — the field.
So which games are going to be the ones that matter the most when all is said and done?
Each week will provide at least one critical game that shapes the final picture. Our task here is to identify which one on the schedule ultimately has the biggest impact on the races for the top seeds, the at-large bids and the battle to be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
Here’s the 15 games that will decide the College Football Playoff field:
Week 1 – Notre Dame at Texas A&M (Aug. 31)
Lots of attention will be focused on the matchup between Georgia and Clemson, however this is a more pivotal game for the Fighting Irish and Aggies. Notre Dame’s schedule features only three teams in the preseason poll — one of which is Florida State. There aren’t a ton of opportunities for high-quality wins, making this road trip crucial to its playoff hopes. Texas A&M winning would be huge to start Mike Elko’s tenure and would be a big resume builder come December.
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Week 2 – Texas at Michigan (Sept. 7)
This game is really about the Wolverines. Are they able to notch a huge non-conference win to continue the momentum from last year’s title, or is this potentially a step-back season? The schedule beyond the Longhorns is much tougher in the expanded Big Ten. Michigan might only be able to afford one more loss if it loses to the Longhorns. For Texas, a win could provide a similar boost like its defeat of Alabama did last season.
Week 3 – Memphis at Florida State (Sept. 14)
The Tigers might have been one of the biggest losers after the Seminoles flopped in Ireland last week. Memphis was hoping this could be a potential playoff-deciding game that would boost it above the rest of the Group of Five. It remains an important outcome and comes the same day Tulane visits Oklahoma, which could help boost the American Athletic profile compared to the rest of the leagues competing to send their champion to the 12-team field.
Week 4 – Utah at Oklahoma State (Sept. 21)
The remaining Big 12 team that played in last year’s conference title game against a new arrival that is the league’s preseason favorite. In what could be the most balanced league among the Power Four, the winner of this one puts down an early marker in the Big 12 race.
Week 5 – Georgia at Alabama (Sept. 28)
The first big test of the Kalen DeBoer era will start to reveal whether the Crimson Tide are SEC title contenders or just playoff contenders. There’s no shame in a loss to the Bulldogs. A win would be huge, giving DeBoer credibility as the heir to the Alabama program after Nick Saban. This is the second huge game in the first third of the season for Georgia (it plays Clemson in Week 1). Two wins would validate the Bulldogs as the No. 1 team. If somehow they lose both, it will be a very thin margin of error the rest of the way.
Week 6 – Clemson at Florida State (Oct. 5)
This game takes on added significance for the Seminoles after their opening loss. They’ll have this matchup and a trip to Notre Dame to boost their profile and make a run at the playoff. But it’s hard to see them having any at-large possibility without beating Clemson at home. For the Tigers, this is a chance to reassert control over the ACC and damage their biggest rivals.
Week 7 – Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12)
The benefits of Big Ten expansion include a trip to Eugene for the Buckeyes, four years after a planned visit was wiped out due to COVID-19. These two teams last met in 2021, with the Ducks prevailing by mauling the Buckeyes in Columbus. Now, they’re the two favorites in the same conference and will have massive stakes riding on the result.
Week 8 – Georgia at Texas (Oct. 19)
The second of two challenging road games against preseason top-five teams for the Bulldogs could have serious implications should they stumble against either Clemson or Alabama. The Longhorns will be one week removed from their annual showdown with Oklahoma, so they could either be riding high or dealing with an emotional letdown from a loss. If Texas is able to pull off a double defeat of the Sooners and Bulldogs, it would be hard to see it missing out on the SEC title game.
Week 9 – Missouri at Alabama (Oct. 26)
This might be the best weekend of the season, with five games matching teams in the preseason poll. It’s the biggest game for the Tigers, who will benefit from the easiest schedule among SEC contenders. Beating the Crimson Tide could all but clinch a playoff spot if they handle business in their winnable games. Missouri may not catch Alabama at a better time with this matchup sandwiched between the Crimson Tide’s trips to Tennessee and LSU.
Week 10 – Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2)
You might be able to call this ‘elimination weekend’ in the Big Ten between this matchup and Oregon visiting Michigan. The Nittany Lions haven’t been able to get over the hump against the Buckeyes in their past seven meetings and have dropped 11 of their last 12 matchups. This seems like a huge moment for their playoff hopes and the trajectory of James Franklin’s tenure. But can they pull it off and maybe reach the Big Ten title game?
Week 11 – Florida State at Notre Dame (Nov. 9)
As mentioned earlier, the Seminoles are going to need a strong run in the next couple months to put themselves in position to win their way into the field. But if they remain in contention, this road trip north in November provides a chance to impress the committee. The Irish — unless they’ve had an awful first two months — still should be in the playoff mix and could lock up their spot with a victory.
Week 12 – Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16)
The Volunteers are another team that could find itself in SEC title contention with a manageable schedule. They stand to be favored in every game to this point except for the matchups with Oklahoma and Alabama. That means this visit to Athens looms as a potential chance to win their way into the conference title game or stake claim to an at-large berth. It’s the last of five games against ranked opponents for the Bulldogs, with the previous four away from home. This is another opportunity to boost their profile.
Week 13 – James Madison at Appalachian State (Nov. 23)
The Dukes and Mountaineers start the season as the two favorites in the Sun Belt and are two of the league’s best bets if it is going to overcome the American Athletic or Mountain West champion for the Group of Five berth. The winner stands to reach the conference title game and could be one victory away from the playoff.
Week 14 – Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
Could this be a situation where both teams have already clinched spots in the Big Ten title game, making their regular-season clash insignificant? Such a new world we face with playoff expansion. It’s expected both teams will be in some sort of playoff contention at this point. The Buckeyes could be in the enviable position of ending their losing streak to the Wolverines while knocking their biggest rival out of the playoff field.
Week 15 – Big 12 championship game (Dec. 7)
The SEC and Big Ten games will have four teams comfortably in the field, barring some extremely unusual circumstances. The ACC appears destined to have a similar situation. So those three matchups then become about seeding and byes. But the Big 12 matchup seems likeliest to provide a win-or-out scenario, given the lack of elite quality teams in the league. That could change, but if there’s going to be a berth among the Power Four decided on the last day of the season, it’s probably going to happen in Arlington, Texas.
