Here comes James Franklin’s big moment as Penn State preps for Ohio State. We know what comes next. Franklin is 0-6 against Day.
The 12-team CFP is tailormade for Penn State as a security blanket for James Franklin’s shortcomings in the biggest games.
Penn State schedule doesn’t include Oregon, Michigan or Indiana. Game vs. Ohio State is its chance for statement victory.
To say college football’s overlords created the 12-team playoff as a sweet deal to help any one team would be inaccurate, because their motivations centered more broadly on money, access, entertainment value and – let’s reiterate – money.
To the extent playoff expansion benefited any particular team, it stood to help Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are the persistent torchbearer of that good-but-not-great glob of also-rans, unable to make a four-team field but perfect for the 12-team variety.
Six times in the past 10 seasons – all under Franklin – the Nittany Lions finished ranked in the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff rankings, with nary a bid to the four-team playoff along the way.
To the Rose Bowl they’d go (twice), or the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach bowls. They played in two-thirds of the bowl games that were part of the New Year’s Six during that stretch – just in years when those bowls were not included in the playoff.
And now here arrives the 12-team playoff as the security blanket Penn State needed all those years.
How ironic it would be if this becomes the year the No. 3 Nittany Lions (7-0) wouldn’t need that extra padding.
Is Penn State legit? Game vs. Ohio State will answer that
Penn State is good. How good?
We’ll find out, like we as do most years, when it hosts No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) on Saturday.
If Penn State wins, it would emerge well-positioned for a playoff of any size.
And why shouldn’t Penn State finally beat the Buckeyes? It’s the home team. It’s the undefeated team. Its résumé trumps Ohio State’s, for the moment. Sure, the Nittany Lions had their hands full last week with Wisconsin, but backup quarterback Beau Pribula played well in relief of injured Drew Alllar, and OSU experienced even more trouble putting away Nebraska.
And still, the Buckeyes are 3½-point betting favorites, and it’s not just because Allar is questionable after injuring his knee against Wisconsin.
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James Franklin simply does not beat Ryan Day
The bespectacled elephant in the room cannot be ignored. Franklin rarely wins games of this magnitude. His Nittany Lions marched undefeated into games against Ohio State or Michigan the past two seasons – and got drilled. They surrendered their undefeated record in one-point losses to the Buckeyes in 2017 and 2018, too.
Widespread public perception says Franklin and Buckeyes coach Ryan Day are pitiful in big games. That narrative, though, ignores Penn State as a big-game opponent for Day, because he owns the Nittany Lions.
Franklin is 0-5 against Day. He’s 4-16 overall against Ohio State or Michigan. Forever the white-ribbon finisher.
Franklin’s lone win over the Buckeyes occurred against Urban Meyer in 2016 in what became his best chance to make the playoff – until now.
“We’re ready for it,” running back Nicholas Singleton told reporters this week.
The ‘it’ in that sentence is the four-quarter, complete-team effort that will be required to topple Ohio State, a result that would send all of Ohio into meltdown mode while Penn State would leverage an argument to be ranked No. 1.
Penn State beating Ohio State would ‘change the culture’
Franklin’s team looks steady and well-rounded, not unlike those Jim Harbaugh teams that beat the Buckeyes. But, we shouldn’t ignore the possibility that this is a mirage, because it usually is. This is a perennial prove-it game, and Penn State typically proves it’s not on Ohio State’s level.
Why would this time be different?
Franklin’s hire of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas paid off. Penn State quarterbacks are completing a whopping 72.5% percent of their passes. The offensive line pass protects well, and its one-two running back punch of Singleton and Kaytron Allen rivals Ohio State’s backfield collection of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Both teams get after it on defense.
Athletes are conditioned to say no individual game means more than another and that the goal is to go 1-0 each week.
Navigate past clichés, though, and any Penn State player who’s been part of past letdowns against the Buckeyes must recognize a win against Ohio State would blast a statement that no other victory could provide from a schedule that does not include Oregon, Michigan or upstart Indiana.
“I would say, it would change the culture in the locker room,” veteran linebacker Kobe King said, “but it’d also show us what we needed to see, … going forward in order to win a Big Ten championship.”
Alternatively, if Penn State loses Saturday, it could be left with a final résumé featuring no wins against opponents ranked in the Top 25 on Selection Sunday. And, maybe, that’s enough to qualify for the 12-team playoff, because this format’s design allows room for the B1G’s bronze medalist.
Penn State wouldn’t have changed, though, only the playoff format.
For the Nittany Lions and Franklin to prove they’ve changed, they must beat Day’s Buckeyes.
‘I think our guys are ready for the challenge,’ Franklin said.
And if not, the 12-team playoff will be left to prop them up.
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